Seasonally, August is the second-slowest month for home sales. But this August is abnormally slow.
Quite simply, certain parts of the credit market have simply imploded. A few facts:
- A large number of mortgage companies have folded. Over 100 major companies in the last few months.
- 100% or 95% financing is nearly impossible to find. A year ago, you could come by it easily.
- It's hard finding a mortgage if your credit score is under 680. Last year, 620 was more typically the cutoff for many mortgage programs.
- The interest rate spread between conforming and jumbo loans has grown dramatically (the cutoff is $417,000). It used to be that the cost of jumbo loans was nearly the same as confirming. But at many lenders, jumbo loans are now costing a full percentage point more.
For Spot sellers, this means that the pool of buyers has shrunk, as fewer people can get mortgages at reasonable terms. And some of those buyers who can get mortgages are holding back -- they're concerned about the market and choose to wait it out.
We are hopeful that the credit markets will settle down a bit, and that some normalcy will resume in a month or so. It's still going to be a big buyers' market, but the mortgage market isn't going away. We think there's been an overreaction to the issues in subprime.
Spot sellers... be patient. We'll keep you posted on the evolving situation.